Two of the most closely watched banking voices in Papua New Guinea have issued their forecasts for 2026, offering a snapshot of how major lenders are reading the year ahead for business activity, investment sentiment and household demand.
Kina Bank has provided an outlook that reflects a cautious but forward-looking tone, as companies seek clearer signals on growth, lending conditions and the operating environment. In a market where banks sit close to the real economy, such outlooks carry weight. Banks see early indicators through credit demand, transaction volumes, arrears trends and the pressure points businesses face in managing foreign exchange needs.
Alongside Kina’s assessment, Westpac has also published a 2026 forecast for Papua New Guinea, adding an external macro lens on the country’s trajectory. While the detail varies, the common thread is that 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilisation rather than a dramatic upswing, with growth likely to be uneven across sectors.
For the private sector, the banking outlooks highlight several recurring themes. The first is the role of major resource projects in anchoring export earnings and supporting fiscal performance. The second is the continued drag created by structural constraints, including high logistics costs, infrastructure gaps and the complexity of doing business across a geographically dispersed country.
A further issue is the business impact of foreign exchange availability. For importers, manufacturers and firms with offshore obligations, foreign exchange constraints can quickly translate into delayed shipments, higher costs and disrupted supply chains. For banks, foreign exchange pressures shape risk appetite and the ability to support trade finance and investment.
Both forecasts also imply that confidence in 2026 will depend heavily on predictability. Businesses and lenders respond positively when policy settings are consistent, regulatory pathways are clear, and reforms are implemented in ways that reduce uncertainty.
Taken together, the two bank outlooks point to a cautious but improving narrative for Papua New Guinea in 2026: steady underlying demand in some areas, selective growth opportunities, and a continuing need for reforms that make it easier for businesses to invest, expand and compete.
